Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has got important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
